Restructuring and Turnaround Financial Modelling

Clear numbers, fast, when the pressure is real.

When a business is under financial pressure the model changes. The horizon shrinks from years to weeks, and the stakes of getting it wrong rise sharply. I build the short-horizon, high-scrutiny models that support a business, its board and its advisors through a restructuring or turnaround, in whatever form that takes.

THE 13-WEEK CASH FLOW FORECAST

A 13-week cash flow forecast is the standard planning tool in a restructuring situation. It tracks cash receipts and disbursements week by week across a rolling quarter, at enough granularity to show a shortfall before it arrives rather than after.

Thirteen weeks is the convention because it is long enough to cover a full quarterly cycle of creditor terms, payroll runs and tax obligations, and short enough that the numbers can be built bottom-up from known commitments rather than estimated.

Built properly it does more than forecast. It becomes the shared reference point between management, the board, the lender and any advisor in the room, which is usually the thing that has been missing.

WHAT IS INVOLVED

  • 13-week rolling cash flow forecasts, updated weekly against actuals, with receipts and disbursements built from known commitments rather than trend

  • Covenant headroom and compliance modelling, showing exactly where you stand against lender-imposed leverage, interest cover and liquidity tests, and how close you are to a breach

  • Viability and scenario modelling to support Safe Harbour, Small Business Restructuring or informal work-out discussions: what a credible path back to stability looks like, in numbers

  • DOCA return modelling, comparing likely creditor outcomes under a proposed Deed of Company Arrangement against the alternative of liquidation

  • Turnaround business case modelling. Cost-out programs, asset sales and operational changes, quantified and sequenced against the cash position

WHEN CLIENTS COME TO ME

  • Cash is tight enough that monthly visibility is no longer sufficient

  • A covenant test is approaching and you need to know your position before your lender does

  • Directors are considering Safe Harbour and need the numbers to support that judgement

  • You, your board or your insolvency practitioner need a credible model to support a DOCA, a Small Business Restructuring plan, or a negotiation with creditors

  • A turnaround plan exists on paper and needs to be quantified and sequenced against the cash position

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?

A 13-week cash flow forecast is a weekly projection of cash receipts and disbursements across one quarter, built from known commitments rather than from trend. It is the standard short-horizon planning tool in restructuring and turnaround situations, used by management, lenders and insolvency practitioners as a shared view of the cash position.

Why 13 weeks and not 12 or 26?

Thirteen weeks is one quarter. It aligns with creditor terms, BAS cycles and quarterly reporting, and it is the horizon lenders and advisors expect to see in a distressed situation. Longer horizons lose the week-by-week accuracy that makes the tool useful.

Do you work directly with insolvency practitioners?

Yes, frequently. The modelling sits alongside their process rather than replacing it.

Can a 13-week model support a Safe Harbour position?

It is one component. Safe Harbour requires directors to be pursuing a course of action reasonably likely to lead to a better outcome than administration, and a credible, documented financial model is a substantial part of evidencing that. The legal judgement stays with your advisors.

What is DOCA return modelling?

It compares the likely return to creditors under a proposed Deed of Company Arrangement against what they would receive in a liquidation. Creditors vote on that comparison, so the modelling behind it needs to be defensible.

How quickly can this be turned around?

Faster than a standard modelling engagement, because the scope is narrower and the urgency is real. Timeline is confirmed on the first call.

RELATED SERVICES

This work sits alongside, not instead of, your insolvency practitioner or legal advisor. I build the numbers that support their process, not the process itself.